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When it comes to closely matched NCAA Tournament showdowns, few pairings are as neck-and-neck on paper as this one between Illinois and Kentucky. With the game taking place on a neutral court, it’s truly anyone’s contest. According to KenPom’s advanced metrics, Illinois enters ranked No. 16 in the country, having endured the fourth-hardest schedule in the nation. Not far behind, Kentucky holds the No. 17 spot and boasts the third-toughest slate of opponents—showing just how tested both teams are.
But in a battle this tight, it's often the small edges that determine the outcome. Illinois brings a noticeable advantage on the boards, ranking 6th nationally in rebounding percentage, while Kentucky lags behind at 55th. That ability to control possessions and generate second-chance opportunities could be critical, especially in what’s expected to be a high-tempo, high-scoring game.
Another key factor: Illinois is finally close to full strength. The team is the healthiest it’s been all season, giving coach Brad Underwood more flexibility with rotations and matchups. On the flip side, Kentucky enters this game without one of their top contributors, Jaxson Robinson, who was averaging double figures before suffering a season-ending injury.
The margins here are razor thin, but those slight advantages—rebounding dominance, better free-throw shooting, and improved health—tilt the scale ever so slightly in favor of Illinois. In a coin-flip matchup like this, those subtle differences could prove decisive. Take Illinois ML
But in a battle this tight, it's often the small edges that determine the outcome. Illinois brings a noticeable advantage on the boards, ranking 6th nationally in rebounding percentage, while Kentucky lags behind at 55th. That ability to control possessions and generate second-chance opportunities could be critical, especially in what’s expected to be a high-tempo, high-scoring game.
Another key factor: Illinois is finally close to full strength. The team is the healthiest it’s been all season, giving coach Brad Underwood more flexibility with rotations and matchups. On the flip side, Kentucky enters this game without one of their top contributors, Jaxson Robinson, who was averaging double figures before suffering a season-ending injury.
The margins here are razor thin, but those slight advantages—rebounding dominance, better free-throw shooting, and improved health—tilt the scale ever so slightly in favor of Illinois. In a coin-flip matchup like this, those subtle differences could prove decisive. Take Illinois ML
NCAA Basketball Picks
Sunday, March 23rd 2025 5:30 PM
Finished
NCAA Basketball Picks
Sunday, March 23rd 2025 5:30 PM
Finished
NCAA Basketball Cappers Picks for Illinois vs Kentucky with Cappers winnings percentage over 55% for the last 7 days:
Mike Tierney 64 % Executive 80 % Insider Sports Report 57 % Kosty Insider Plays 57 % Chris Ruffolo 56 % Arthur Ralph 57 % Your Daily Capper 63 % John Rainey 57 % Eli Hershkovich 56 %
Illinois
Kentucky SPREAD
Illinois -2.5 (-110) AVG SPREAD W%: 48 ROI: -8
Eli Hershkovich
W%: 42
ROI: -20
David Delano
W%: 53
ROI: 0
Josh Schonwald
W%: 49
ROI: -5
Trent Pruitt
W%: 49
ROI: -6
Max Turner
W%: 50
ROI: -4
Kyle Lupas
W%: 49
ROI: -5
Randy Chambers
W%: 48
ROI: -7
Bet Sharper
W%: 40
ROI: -25
Strike Point Sports
W%: 49
ROI: -6
Brandon Lee
W%: 50
ROI: -4
Executive
W%: 50
ROI: -7
SPREAD
Kentucky 2.5 (-110) AVG SPREAD W%: 50 ROI: -5
Cameron Picks and parlays
W%: 50
ROI: -5
Andrew Jett
W%: 49
ROI: -8
Insider Sports Report
W%: 51
ROI: -3
Chris Ruffolo
W%: 50
ROI: -6
Brandon Lang
W%: 45
ROI: -14
Arthur Ralph
W%: 53
ROI: -0
August Young
W%: 54
ROI: 2
John Rainey
W%: 48
ROI: -9
Robert Ferringo
W%: 52
ROI: -1
Dave Price
W%: 47
ROI: -9
Rocky Atkinson
W%: 51
ROI: -4
Pure Lock
W%: 49
ROI: -7
Ray Monohan
W%: 51
ROI: -3
MONEY
Illinois -145 AVG MONEY W%: 52 ROI: -3
Kyle Lupas
W%: 49
ROI: -5
Drew Phelps
W%: 51
ROI: -1
Smart Money Sports
W%: 48
ROI: -8
Steve Fezzik
W%: 54
ROI: -2
Your Daily Capper
W%: 56
ROI: -3
Ian Cameron
W%: 53
ROI: 1
LVSB Parlay
W%: 58
ROI: -3
Bob Konarski (BurghBets)
W%: 50
ROI: -4
TOTAL
UNDER 167.0 (-110)
AVG UNDER W%: 49 ROI: -7
TOTAL
OVER 167.0 (-110)
AVG OVER W%: 51 ROI: -3
Trent Pruitt
W%: 49
ROI: -6
Max Turner
W%: 50
ROI: -4
Ian Cameron
W%: 53
ROI: 1
Mike Tierney
W%: 51
ROI: -4
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